Amid the ongoing global tariff war, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Wednesday said he is more worried about its impact on growth than inflation. Speaking to the media after presentation of the first bi-monthly monetary policy for the current financial year, Malhotra said, RBI has reduced the growth forecast for 2025-26 by 20 basis points to 6.5 per cent.
Exim Bank pointed out that recent performance of the manufacturing sector in India is indicative of an underlying inertia.
As sanctions-hit Russia increasingly relies on consumer products from India, outbound shipments to Russia have started picking up for the second consecutive month in October. This comes after it witnessed contraction for six consecutive months starting March, commerce and industry ministry data showed. During October, India exported goods worth $280 million, up 3.7 per cent as compared to a year ago. It was led by demand for items such as vegetables, tea, coffee, chemicals as well as iron and steel products.
'Could the impending new crisis, vibe coding, similarly create not a disaster like what befell Indian handlooms during the Industrial Revolution but another opportunity like what the Y2K crisis created?' asks Ajit Balakrishnan.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections for 2025 to 6.3 per cent, from 6.5 per cent, saying economies globally will see a slowdown on account of heightened US policy uncertainty and trade restrictions.
The Reserve Bank on Monday asked banks to put in place additional arrangements for export and import transactions in Indian rupees in view of increasing interest of the global trading community in the domestic currency. Before putting in place this mechanism, banks will require prior approval from the Foreign Exchange Department of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the central bank said in a circular. "In order to promote growth of global trade with emphasis on exports from India and to support the increasing interest of global trading community in INR, it has been decided to put in place an additional arrangement for invoicing, payment, and settlement of exports / imports in INR," it said.
Indian exporters shipping goods to Israel may face higher insurance premiums and shipping costs due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, according to experts. Israel witnessed a surprise and unprecedented multifront attack by air, land and sea by the Hamas militant group, which rules the Gaza Strip, in its southern parts on Saturday morning. The International trade experts said the conflict may reduce the profits of domestic exporters but will not impact trade volumes unless war escalates.
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Imports of gold virtually stopped since July 22 after confusion on the new import rules.
India's exports may have touched an all-time high of $422 billion in 2021-22 but recession in key western markets and geo-political crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war are expected to impact the growth of the country's outbound shipments in 2023. All the global trade promoting factors like political stability, movement of goods, adequate availability of containers and shipping lines, demand, stable currency and smooth banking systems are in disarray. Adding to the woes, COVID cases have again started rising in countries like China, Japan, South Korea and the US.
Domestic rating agency ICRA on Monday said Indian companies are likely to clock 7-8 per cent revenue growth during the March quarter of the current fiscal year, led by revival in rural demand and uptick in government spending. ICRA expects the private capital expenditure (capex) cycle to remain measured in view of the uncertainties around geopolitical developments and relatively subdued outlook on merchandise exports from India.
JV to export e-carts, aim for 10% global market share, $1 bn turnover and innovation in driverless tech.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has given its approval to two Russian banks for opening special vostro account for rupee trade. Sberbank, JSC VTB - the largest and second largest bank of Russia - are the first foreign lenders to receive this approval after the central bank announced the norms on INR trade in July. Both lenders have branch presence in India. Earlier this month, state-run UCO Bank received the RBI's approval to open a special Vostro account with Gazprombank of Russia. While the Kolkata-based lender is in the process of opening the account, the bank has received requests from various foreign lenders for opening such an account.
A decline in demand from six of India's top 10 import partners -- China, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, South Korea, Australia, and Singapore -- resulted in India's imports hitting a 17-month low of $50.6 billion in January, showed the data compiled by the department of commerce. Shipments from South Korea, Australia, and Singapore declined by 14.1 per cent, 26.7 per cent, and 9.8 per cent, respectively. Among the 10, growth in inbound shipment was seen only in the case of the United Arab Emirates (12.1 per cent), the US (27.4 per cent), Russia (297.4 per cent), and Indonesia (22.9 per cent).
The RBI on Wednesday slashed key interest rate by 25 basis points, for the second time in a row, to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. Following the rate cut, the key policy rate eased to 6 per cent providing relief to home, auto and corporate loan borrowers.
Export Import Bank of India on Friday mooted an "integrated effort" from government, industry and R&D units to boost exports of Indian herbal products, which lagged behind the growing global market, now at $62 billion.
Geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, volatility in international commodity prices and financial market uncertainties pose considerable risks to India's economic growth in the coming year, the finance ministry cautioned on Wednesday. "Global trade continues to be affected by uncertainty in the policy environment... tariff-related developments in multiple countries have heightened trade-related risks, affecting investment and trade flows globally.
The protesting farmers' main demand to legalise the minimum support price (MSP) regime has divided opinion. One school of thought says it would lead to crop diversification and help India keep under check its burgeoning import bill on edible oils and pulses, while another says it would incentivise farmers to produce low-quality crops. Contrary to popular perception, India has a trade surplus in agriculture and allied activities, which stood at $18.65 billion during 2022-23 (FY23) against $15.92 billion in the previous year. However, the surplus was mainly on account of rice, wheat, sugar, spices, and buffalo meat.
India's national security focus has shifted from the western border to the eastern one. But our trade with China keeps rising. This trade is against our interest, because most of it comprises of Chinese imports, argues Aakar Patel.
'When Prime Minister Modi met President Trump, they agreed to initiate a bilateral trade dialogue.' 'It makes sense to give these negotiations a chance.'
Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted on Tuesday that India's water will no longer flow outside the country but will be utilized in the nation's interest, a statement seemingly directed at Pakistan following his government's decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance after the Pahalgam terror attack. Addressing the ABP Network's 'India@2047' Summit, Modi emphasized his government's focus on interlinking rivers, noting that water used to be a source of conflict among states, before alluding to India's stance against Pakistan while discussing water. He highlighted the finalization of the India-UK free trade agreement as a historic milestone and underscored the importance of prioritizing national interest for achieving objectives and realizing the country's potential. Modi highlighted the country's growth and development under his government's rule, emphasizing its focus on welfare schemes and digitalization. He reiterated his government's commitment to 'Nation First' and pointed to the recent reforms undertaken, including the new Waqf law and the ban on triple talaq, which he said were aimed at benefiting the marginalized sections of society.
Those who consider the rupee as a proxy for virility have started thumping their chests and dreaming of dethroning the dollar from its coveted position, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The rating agency revised the outlook for EXIM, SBI, Bank of Baroda, Bank of Baroda (New Zealand), Bank of India, Canara Bank, Punjab National Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank while affirming their ratings. At the same time, Fitch has affirmed IDBI Bank Ltd's (IDBI) rating, while maintaining the outlook at negative.
Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman has presented a forward-looking Budget, reinforcing the government's commitment to 'Reform, Perform, and Transform'.
India's import of discounted crude oil from the Russian Federation hit an all-time high in May, with state-run refiner IOC becoming the biggest importer of Russian oil, relegating Reliance Industries to the second place, trade and shipping data show. Indian imports of Russian oil, accounting for over 46 per cent of its total crude oil imports in May, have grown after strong backing by New Delhi, with state-run refiners powering imports of discounted crude. Discounts on Russian oil average around $10 a barrel, said an official from a state-run refiner. IOC's May purchases rose by 64 per cent on the month, and accounted for half of its total crude imports last month, ship tracking data show.
After staging a strong recovery from COVID-induced slowdown in 2021, India's exports are likely to extend the growth story to the New Year also on increased demand in the global markets, boost in domestic manufacturing due to production-linked incentive schemes and implementation of some interim trade pacts. Expectations of positive growth in the country's exports are also backed up by the outlook of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which predicts a 4.7 per cent expansion in the global merchandise trade volume in 2022. Exporters believe that the outbound shipments would cross $400 billion mark in this fiscal going by the current momentum and may reach $475 billion in 2022-23.
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
'The US has agreed to negotiate with us a mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreement, which will go for reduction of tariffs on both sides so that our trade can grow.'
'We never waste a crisis. There will be learning and the supervisory tools will get better with each episode.'
Analysts believe Tesla will first focus on building the Model Y brand before expanding -- both in terms of volume and models.
India's GDP is likely to grow at 6.5 to 7 per cent in the current fiscal year amid global challenges which may impact exports, said Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. The growth projected for 2024-25 is lower than the economic growth rate of 8.2 per cent estimated for the previous financial year. The Reserve Bank has projected the GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2025 at 7.2 per cent.
Investors should tilt their portfolios towards domestic-facing defensive sectors, which should help provide stability and shield them from geopolitical and tariff risks.
If Beijing succeeds in this multipronged effort to challenge the current dominant power, it will have not just economic but political and security consequences. There is no let-up in the South China Sea nor any de-escalation moves on the India-China border. This portends to ominous signalling from Beijing, observes China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Infosys, HCL Tech, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and NTPC were among the biggest laggards among Sensex shares. Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and ITC were among the gainers.
The revenue growth of Indian companies for the July-September quarter is estimated to be 5-7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), marking the slowest growth in 16 quarters, rating agency CRISIL said on Thursday.
World Bank President Robert B Zoellick in his remarks at the Rome Conference on Food Security pointed out that 28 countries have imposed export bans on food items and stressed 'these restrictions and taxes should be lifted, at a minimum for humanitarian food purchases and transportation by World Food Programme'. UN Secretary General Bank Ki-moon on Tuesday called upon the countries to resist the temptation to impose ban on export of foodgrain.
Iran is India's largest importer of tea in value terms while in terms of volume, it is the second largest after Russia
India's exports contracted by 22 per cent, the steepest decline in the last three years, to $32.97 billion in June on account of global demand slowdown, especially in the Western markets like the US and Europe. According to the data of the commerce ministry, the trade deficit in June stood at $20.3 billion against $22.07 billion in the same month last year due to a fall in exports and imports. The inbound shipments during the month under review declined by a steep 17.48 per cent to $53.10 billion.
Opposition MPs in India's Rajya Sabha raised concerns about US President Donald Trump's tariff threats, demanding the government clarify its response and engage in discussions with opposition parties. Leaders like P Chidambaram and Sagarika Ghose warned of potential economic repercussions, including depressed exports, lower FDI, and a significant tariff burden. The debate also touched on other issues such as the government's economic policies, demonetization, and the impact of GST on common citizens.
Raising overseas debt has become prohibitively expensive due to the depreciating rupee.
